Josh’s Top 30 Prospects: 10-1

This is the final installment of my prospect rankings. If you missed it part 1 was here and part 2 was here.

My list to date

30-Christian Otero-SS

29-Rafael Rodriguez-OF

28-Jake Dunning-RHP

27-Adalberto Mejia-LHP

26-Stephen Harrold-RHP

25-Chuckie Jones-OF

24-Kendry Flores-RHP

23-Hector Correa-RHP

22-Mike Kickham-LHP

21-Jesus Galindo-OF

20-Adam Duvall-3B

19-Chris Marlowe-RHP

18-Ricky Oropesa-1B

17-Jarrett Parker-OF

16-Jacob Dunnington-RHP

15-Chris Dominguez-3B

14-Clayton Blackburn-RHP

13-Conor Gillaspie-3B

12-Charlie Culberson-2B

11-Josh Osich-LHP

Now on to the top 10!

10-Kyle Crick-RHP

Crick was the Giants’ supplemental 1st round pick as a right hander out of a high school in Texas. He has good arm strength and a strong build but is still raw as a pitcher as he spent most of his time in high school playing 1B. He threw 7 innings in the AZL last year after signing and next year could head to Augusta, though given how new he is to pitching, an assignment to EST and then Salem-Keizer would not surprise me.

9-Hector Sanchez-C

Sanchez probably did not expect to make his major league debut this year. He spent 2010 and part of 2011 splitting time behind the plate with Tommy Joseph before Buster Posey‘s injury caused the Giants to try and catch lightning in a bottle, so to speak, with Sanchez. Sanchez has shown flashes of power and on base ability, but unfortunately never at the same time. Last year he naturally struggled a bit with the adjustment to the higher levels. He’ll likely spend the year at AAA and possibly come up as a reserve if Chris Stewart or Eli Whiteside struggle.

8-Heath Hembree-RHP

This ranking may be a little low given how electric Hembree’s stuff is, but I have trouble ranking him any higher given his relief profile. Hembree was almost unhittable last year, striking out 13.2 batters per 9 across two levels. While his control could use some refinement, Hembree is knocking on the doors of the majors and looks like he could be a potential successor to Brian Wilson.

7-Francisco Peguero-OF

I like Peguero and early on thought about ranking him as high as second though. He is a very good hitter for average and has some pop as well as solid athleticism and a strong arm. His main weakness is his approach which is very poor as he has just 35 walks over the last 3 years. To put it another way: last year the Eastern League as a whole hit .259/.329/.395. In the EL Peguero hit .309/.318/.446. Peguero had a batting average 50 points higher than league average and still had a below average OBP. That’s…hard to do. He still has some electric tools though, so if he is able to mature his approach a little he could be a very good player.

6-Eric Surkamp-LHP

Eric Surkamp made his major league debut and it did not go well as he walked more batters than he struck out. By now you probably know the story about Surkamp. He has a fringy fastball but a good curveball and change up as well as good command. Last year he didn’t show it in the majors but he was setting a career high in innings pitched and jumping to the majors from AA is a big leap, no matter how polished you are. I do think Surkamp will settle in as a nice back of the rotation guy, who should get some benefit from AT&T Park.

5-Andrew Susac-C

Susac was the Giants’ 2nd round pick which was surprising to me as I thought he definitely would have been picked in the first round. He slipped though, mainly due to a hamate injury and the fact that he had increased leverage as a draft eligible Sophomore. Susac has good tools including solid power and a strong arm. He has some things to work on behind the plate but he should stay at catcher. He’ll likely start the year at San Jose.

4-Joe Panik-SS/2B

Panik was the Giants’ 1st round pick and he seemed to catch people a bit by surprise. Panik is a solid hitter for average and has good patience. He made his debut in the NWL and hit .341/.401/.467 before then playing in the AFL. Panik will likely start next year at San Jose playing SS, but if he hits there, the Giants could try to expedite his bat and promote him to AA to play 2B along side Ehire Adrianza.

3-Ehire Adrianza-SS

And speaking of Adrianza-here he is. I probably have him rated higher than most places, and that is mainly due to the fact that I think he’ll hit enough to play everyday. He is regarded as a fantastic defensive SS and offensively has always posted a good walk rate. Last year, as a 21 year old in the Cal League he hit .300/.375/.470, though he was repeating the level. Next year he’ll likely head to AA which should provide a challenge for him offensively. While he may need 1000 more at bats in the minors, I do think that he can be good enough to hit at the bottom of the order and let his defense carry him.

2-Tommy Joseph-C

Joseph is one of the more intriguing youngsters in the Giants system. He was drafted as a catcher and the common refrain at the time was that it was a question of when Joseph would need to move, not if. Now, after 2 years in the minors, most people believe he’ll be fine at catcher. Offensively he has big time raw power but a poor approach has hindered it a bit from translating completely, though he did have a good year in the Cal league last year. Joseph’s two best qualities are his age (he’ll be 20 in AA next year), and position. I think he could end up as a Miguel Olivo type with the upside to be more.

1-Gary Brown-OF

Brown was the 2010 1st round draft pick and he had an electric debut in the Cal league, hitting .336/.407/.519 with 53 stolen bags. Brown has game changing speed-an example of this was in a televised game he hit a groundball right up the middle to the CF-when the CF looked down to pick it up Brown bolted for second and made it. Brown is also an excellent defensive CF and has an excellent contact rate. While he’ll never walk a lot, he should have a high enough BA to keep a solid OBP. A median projection for him could be something along the lines of a Michael Bourn player. While I would have preferred to trade Brown and keep Wheeler, Brown certainly is a very good prospect.

4 thoughts on “Josh’s Top 30 Prospects: 10-1

  1. Nice job. I like your aggressive ranking of Adrianza. What’s not to like about his numbers as a 21 year old SS in A+? Looks like he got away from his running game last year. Was there a leg injury? While he’s no Elvis Andrus, maybe his ceiling is Elvis lite. .271/.340/.343 is what Elvis has done for the Rangers. Perhaps Adrianza can be a little better than Crawford with something in the .250/.320/.360 neighborhood. Big year for him and Peguero.

    Safe place for Peguero up there. Interesting how he made a top 100 list. Pablo Sandoval wasn’t too big on walks either but maybe last year was freakish for Peguero. Big test for him. I wonder if it will start in Richmond once again.

  2. Very interesting rankings and good job with it. For the most part, I pretty much agree, though I don’t think I would rank Adrianza as aggressively as you would. Though he is definitely a Top-10 prospect in the Giants system to me, perhaps even Top-5. I really like Adrianza’s tool set, and as we said before, I think he could be an Alcides Escobar-type player with a better plate approach (which is not a bad player to imagine, really) though maybe a little less speed. I am interested to see if the Stolen Bases will go back up. He did steal 33 bags in 2010 in San Jose, so as stated by Ryan, I wonder if injury (he started the year hurt I remember) or change in managerial philosophy that held him at bay. I know Escobar had a similar dip in SB his second year in the league, but than started to produce the totals that we expect. I don’t think Adrianza will be a 25-plus guy, but I could see him steal in the 15-20 range if he gets the opportunity.

    I also like Panik a little more than Joseph. Joseph obviously has a “plus” tool (power) and his defense took great strides from the previous season, and he has been playing against much older competition (a BIG plus in his favor). That being said, Panik’s plate approach from college to Salem-Keizer to the AFL has been phenomenal and I just think that’s going to bode him well as he climbs up the system. Joseph’s approach is getting better, but I still think he’s a long ways away. In terms of ceiling, no doubt Joseph has the advantage over Panik. But in terms of skills currently and being closer to the Majors, I think Panik is better.

  3. Thanks to both of you.

    Ryan-About Peguero I wanted to put him higher and I was glad that his power didn’t drop off too much at AA, but I just couldn’t get past his extreme free swinging ways. His upside is very high though, if he can just be a bit more selective.
    I think Adrianza as Andrus with about 20 fewer steals is pretty fair.

    Kevin-We discussed Adrianza a bit on twitter, so I won’t rehash it all here. As far as Panik I could definitely buy him as #2 but I went with Joseph because I saw him as a bit more of an impact player.

  4. Peguero is very hard to gauge. Tools wise, he seems very intriguing and he has seem to hit for high average everywhere he has played in the Giants system. At the end of the day though, that walk rate, no matter how you look at it, is not good and to me, that’s a big red flag in terms of whether or not his numbers will transition to the Majors.

    I still am high on him as a prospect though. And it’s not like he strikes out a plethora either. If he can get that walk rate to even minor league “Panda” level (which was about 4-5 percent), then I think I would feel a lot more comfortable about him as a prospect. I think that is certainly possible next year.

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