Angel Pagan Trade Reaction

Well, hello there Angel Pagan, 30 years old, and not exactly coming off a good season. In 532 plate appearances, he hit .262/.322/.372 (99 wRC+), which is pretty respectable, but he seemed to have a bad year in the outfield: -14.3 UZR, -1 DRS, -19 TZ. Take it at face value, with all the usual small sample size defensive metric caveats, but the general consensus seems to be that he wasn’t good. That said, based on how great he rated in 2010 (+15 UZR, +7 DRS, +21 TZ), I’d expect that he’s capable of doing better than his 2011 metrics show. It’s not as simple as just averaging his two most recent seasons and assuming he’s a neutral defender, but I think he’s at least generally considered to be better defensively than Melky Cabrera.

It’s easy to look at the sub-.700 OPS from this season and be unsatisfied, but that’s the state of offense in major-league baseball at this point. That was average production in 2011. Assuming he does a decent-enough job with the glove, I could easily see him being an above-average player (Bill James, for the record, projects a .325 wOBA for Mr. Pagan).

What do the Giants lose? Well, for one, they lose a solid bullpen arm. Ramirez has never been anything flashy, but in his time with the Giants he put up good numbers: 95.2 IP, 178 ERA+, 2.07 ERA/3.14 FIP/3.90 xFIP. On one hand, I don’t think I’ll ever forget this. I mean, that pitch was right down the freakin’ middle. But Ramirez is a quality arm, even though the Giants’ bullpen can surely take the hit (hey there, Heath Hembree).

Andres Torres has left more of a mark in San Francisco. I’m sure I’ll expand on this later, but I’m going to miss Torres. A lot. From a statistical standpoint, he had quite a large impact on the Giants: take his seven wins away from the 2010 Giants, and there’s no championship. There’s no denying the steep dropoff in his performance, as his wOBA dipped below .300 in 2011. But he was valuable nonetheless, certainly enough so that he was worth tendering a contract. I’ve explained this repeatedly, but his value as an elite defensive outfielder with plus speed made him, at worst, a fourth outfielder going into next season. He’s getting a little old (in baseball terms, at least), and given his not-so-lengthy track record, I could understand the sentiment that he doesn’t warrant a starting job. And for the record, scouts hate his swing. But he’s raked to the tune of .269/.343/.492 since 2009, and I think he’s ultimately still a league-average player. And hey, for what it’s worth, Bill James still thinks Torres has something left in that bat.

In any event, was becoming increasingly clear that he had no place in the Giants’ 2012 plans. If the option was non-tender him or trade him, I’d obviously prefer the latter.

As a whole, I like the move. So long as it doesn’t push Brandon Belt out of a starting role (seriously, Bruce Bochy, please don’t do that). Angel Pagan is a better centerfielder than Melky Cabrera, and this move clearly improves the Giants’ lineup.

Farewell, Torres. Always underappreciated.

Giants’ Top Twenty Prospects: Part II…10-1

In case you missed it, here’s part one. Tomorrow, I’ll post honorable mentions — prospects that just missed the list. Moving on…

10. Ehire Adrianza, age 22, SS

Plus defensive shortstop, and as such, the bar for his offense is set pretty low. Showed glimpses of potential for reaching that bar (.300/.375/.470 at San Jose).

9. Heath Hembree, age 22, RHP

Hesitant to rank him higher because of the walks and the fact that he’s a reliever, but his stuff is legit.

8. Francisco Peguero, age 23, OF

High ceiling, but the lack of plate discipline is a major issue (five walks in 296 PAs at Richmond)

7. Tommy Joseph, age 20, C

Age and positional value work to his favor, and he saw tremendous improvement (defensively and offensively) as the year went on. Plate discipline, however, is not his strong suit.

6. Hector Sanchez, age 21, C

Fairly advanced for his age, and he has quality defensive tools (as well as good power potential at the plate). That said, his conditioning could be a major roadblock in his development.

5. Eric Surkamp, age 24, LHP

He dominated Double-A, but was quite underwhelming in six starts in the majors. A low-ceiling arm, but I think he could still develop into a useful back-end starter.

4. Kyle Crick, age 18, RHP

Ace potential, but very raw at this point.

3. Andrew Susac, age 21, C

Above-average defensive catcher with on-base skills; a pretty polished product.

2. Joe Panik, age 21, SS/2B

Either he stays at shortstop, where he could be as good as average defensively, or he moves to second-base where he projects as an above-average defender. In any event, his bat plays well for a middle-infielder — good contact/on-base skills.

1. Gary Brown, age 23, CF

Legitimate all-star potential: plus defensive outfielder with speed on the basepaths, and a quality bat (especially from an up-the-middle position). Hopefully he’ll do well in his transition to Double-A Richmond (a notoriously pitcher-friendly environment).